El Niño isn’t just a Weather Event, it’s an Economic Red Flag

South Africa is heading into its summer season under what the country’s own ENSO Reference Group, a panel of leading local climate scientists, describes as an exceptional El Niño, one that could become the strongest on record. Forecasters are pointing to a very strong event peaking between November 2026 and February 2027. The real risk isn’t only the heat, it’s what that heat does to an already fragile economy. El Niño, the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that tends to bring hotter, drier conditions to Southern Africa, is now a mature, intensifying ocean-atmosphere event, with sea-surface temperatures unusually high for this stage of the season. The South African Weather Service has also already warned of rising temperatures and greater climate variability this season. This article is written by Thabiso Rulashe, Executive Head of Strategy and Investor Relations at Santam.